The yield curve has been flirting with inversion but is really not quite there yet.
Before recessions we generally see a serious and sustained inversion of the yield curve. What matters is not if we are looking for something to replace oil, but what people in general think. The yield curve has been flirting with inversion but is really not quite there yet. If the military is importing fuel from turkey that would imply they are not using domestic sources. Also they are growing off of a tiny base, and are viable because that growth is taking place against a backdrop of existing baseload capacity and reliable peaker capacity. Btw the experiment of burying containers with electrical heaters simulating the waste, monitoring them and the surrounding clay and bedrock and then retrieving them is recently concluded. It is an oft-repeated fallacy that WW2 ended the depression.
Short term, growing crops is not a solution to starvation. We won't know for sure till that first friday in July, yep, but it's going to be pretty obvious by then that we are in a significant slowdown. Strict environmental regulation and harsh fines if you break the law. Oh, like I'm supposed to be surprised that we're going to run out of oil, that it's a finite resoruce. They're not in any way like those ghastly Murcans with their vulgar SUVs.